On the Monday evening following the conclusion of Round 1 of the 2025 season, the Betfred Super League unveiled its new Egg.com Power Rankings.
Compiled using form, momentum and results – two of those are arguably the same and the evidence for momentum in sport being A Thing is inconclusive at best, but whatever – it is designed to be a rating system which tells us what is happening beyond the traditional league table.
Which is fine in a multi-division competition like the NFL, for example, where power rankings allow all 32 teams to be compared like for like when they’re split into two conferences which are, in turn, split into four divisions of four.
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Rather than in a single-division competition such as Super League where someone not a million miles from this website somewhat snarkily suggested the best way of doing this was to, you know, just look at the table.
Still, the cynicism of certain smart-arse rugby league hacks aside, the Egg.com Power Rankings are mostly harmless fun and something to generate a bit of a talking point, even with the somewhat arcane way they are put together.
What if there was a more scientific way to measure how teams are performing? Fortunately, Pythagorean expectation offers us the opportunity to do just that.
Like a number of modern sports metrics, this was initially developed for use in baseball but has spread to other sports as a measure of whether teams are over-performing or under-performing relative to their points scored and conceded.
For our rankings, we’ll be using the PythagenPat calculation which, for complex mathematical reasons, is considered the most accurate and adaptable across sports due to its variable exponent (you can use this handy online calculator to calculate your own projections).
There are caveats to this, mainly that we are just four rounds into the new season so it’s from a small sample size. Nevertheless, with Super League taking a break for the Betfred Challenge Cup this week it seems as good a time as any to stop and assess.
Teams are ranked on how many games they would have been reasonably expected to win, with their actual record in brackets, and points difference as a tie-breaker. Draws are counted as half-wins for the purposes of this as well.
So, without further ado, here are the rugbyleaguehub.com Pythagorean expectation rankings for Super League 2025 after four rounds…
1. St Helens – 4-0 (3-1, +132): Now, bearing in mind Saints stormed to an 82-0 win over Salford’s reserve and academy team in Round 1, you might be thinking their ranking has been somewhat distorted by such a lopsided score in a small sample size.
That was my initial reaction as well, but even stripping that game out of there, Paul Wellens’ side would still have been expected to be 3-0 from their other matches so far, Round 4 20-10 defeat to Hull KR be damned.
Of course, you could argue two of those wins came against struggling Castleford Tigers and promoted Wakefield Trinity, so it might not be a true reflection of where they’re at. Nevertheless, you can only play who is in front of you and St Helens lead the way after four rounds.
2. Wigan Warriors – 4-0 (3-1, +91): No surprise to see the reigning champions up here so early on, even if they are below rivals St Helens on points difference.
After a rare 1-0 defeat at home to Leigh Leopards in the opening round, Matt Peet’s side have run in more than 40 points in each of their matches against Hull FC, Warrington Wolves and Huddersfield Giants.
It’s not quite enough to put them top of the rankings in these early stages, but the signs are ominous for those aiming to dethrone the all-conquering Warriors this year.
3. Hull KR – 3-1 (4-0, +55): The one team with a real-life 100 percent record which has put them top of the table, last year’s Grand Finalist “should” have reasonably been expected to have suffered a loss so far.
The 42-0 win over Salford and last week’s victory over St Helens by 10 points have seen things pick up for Willie Peters’ side after a one-point win over Castleford and a two-point win over Wakefield.
4. Leigh Leopards – 3-1 (3.5-0.5, +43): Leigh are the only other unbeaten team after four rounds of the 2025 Super League season, albeit after being held to a 22-22 draw in last week’s tense clash at Hull FC.
That sees them sit second in the real-life league standings, although their PythagenPat expectation would be that they are fourth with three wins and one defeat.
5. Leeds Rhinos – 3-1 (2-2, +27): Brad Arthur’s side have beaten both Salford and Castleford, but been beaten by Wakefield and Catalans Dragons in real life.
That 32-6 win over the Red Devils has perhaps bumped their Pythagorean expectation up slightly, but as it stands it’s a winning record and puts them comfortably in the early play-off places.
6. Wakefield Trinity – 2-2 (2-2, -6): Promoted back to Super League from the Betfred Championship, Wakefield’s expected record of two wins and two losses mirrors their real-life total.
That sees them sit just outside the play-offs at present, although on our projected table they would be expected to be inside the top six.
7. Hull FC – 1-3 (2.5-1.5, -21): The Black and Whites have enjoyed a solid start to life under John Cartwright, with last season’s 11th-place finishers sitting fifth after winning two, drawing one and losing one.
Their PythagenPat rating puts Hull FC as one of five teams with a 1-3 record so far though, albeit the leading team in that group on points difference.
8. Warrington Wolves – 1-3 (2-2, -27): According to PythgaenPat, Warrington should have been expected to finished top of the Super League table last season on the basis of their regular-season record.
It is a different story for Sam Burgess’ side this time around, who would so far been expected to have just one win on the board, although the heavy defeat to Wigan in Las Vegas perhaps has some bearing on that.
9 and 10. Catalans Dragons – 1-3 (1-3, -43) and Castleford Tigers – 1-3 (1-3, -47): We’ve kept these two teams together because they are performing exactly as they would have been reasonably expected to do.
Catalans and Castleford both picked up their first wins of the season in Round 4 after three defeats to kick off the year, but had struggled to get anything going before those.
11. Huddersfield Giants – 1-3 (0-4, -49): A crumb of comfort for Luke Robinson’s side is that their performances suggest they would have reasonably been expected to have picked up a win by now.
As it stands, though, in real life they have failed to get on the board in the ‘W’ column and went down 44-18 away to Wigan in Round 4.
12. Salford Red Devils – 0-4 (0-4, -158): There’s no nice way of putting this because even without that lopsided loss to St Helens and the off-field financial issues, Salford have endured a dismal start to the 2025 Super League season.
Up until last Friday’s 22-14 defeat to Castleford, they had failed to score more than one try in a game and had been nilled twice, leaving last year’s fourth-place finish looking even more of an overachievement.
