By DAVID HAYWARD
THERE was a time, around five years ago to be more specific, when NRL attendances in Sydney were trending in very encouraging direction, to a point that was significantly closing the vast attendance gap the NRL has between the AFL.
In 2002, AFL crowds were 2.46 times the size of the NRL and by 2012 the NRL had closed the gap so that the AFL crowds were “only” 1.92 times bigger. What has transpired in the past five years is a significant trend in the opposite direction for Sydney attendances. And after the first three rounds of the 2017 are any indication, attendances are going to be even further diminished in Sydney.
The chart below shows a breakdown of average NRL attendances over the past 30 years, with the overall NRL average shown in dark blue, and matches hosted in Sydney in light blue. It shows how NRL attendances peaked in Sydney during 2005 at around 16,000 per match, and while there was a drop of for a number of years, they were still above 15,000 per match in 2014 (coinciding with South Sydney’s first premiership since 1971). However in the following two years Sydney attendances dropped 10 per cent to 13,700 per match in 2016, and at the start of 2017, have dropped a further 12 per cent to 12,100 per match (almost one quarter less than the attendances in 2005).
The decline can be attributed to four major factors, most notably:
1. Scheduling matches on Thursday night, 4pm Sunday evening and now at 6pm Friday in Sydney
2. Smaller market Sydney teams Cronulla and Penrith being the best two Sydney teams in 2016
3. Ageing stadiums
4. Continuing to be regularly and negatively associated with social issues such as drugs (both illicit and performance and enhancing), domestic violence, anti-social behaviour, criminals, and match fixing.
The NRL has a degree of control over each of these factors and must address each if attendances are to rise in Sydney again.
With regard to scheduling, due to diabolical traffic congestion during weekday PM peak periods, no matches should be held in Sydney on Thursday night or 6pm Friday. These timeslots should be reserved for locations such as Canberra, Newcastle, Wollongong, Gold Coast and most importantly on Friday at 6pm, New Zealand so that fans can access the stadium with more convenience.
The NRL is showing complete contempt for the fans by scheduling a match in Sydney at 6pm Friday, when most people are either stuck in traffic, at a bar for after work dinner and drinks, or putting dinner on the home kitchen table while the 6pm news is on. Based on the 2017 TV ratings, the Friday 6pm timeslot is rating as low as the Saturday afternoon timeslot (219,000 average viewers) which is not surprising given what most people have in their routines at that time of the week, and is 18 per cent fewer than the Sunday night timeslot. This begs the question which many a fan is asking, why not scrap the 6pm Friday timeslot and replace it with a 6:30pm Sunday match to close out each round? Then you could have a six hour NRL extravaganza from 2-8:30pm Sundays with the added bonus of less traffic congestion in Sydney for fans to get to games more easily. It is a win-win for NRL and Fox Sports as it should increase ratings and attendances at the same time.
With regard to Sydney teams with smaller fan bases (being Cronulla, Penrith, Sydney Roosters and Manly), 2016 represented a Sydney attendance Armageddon of sorts for the NRL with Penrith and Cronulla being the last Sydney teams standing. The Sharks’ recent season opening match of 11,493 was hugely disappointing given it was a celebration of the club’s first ever premiership and the start of 50th anniversary celebrations. This should be as good as it gets for Cronulla, and if that is the case it is not enough for the future success of the NRL. It was the lowest attended first home match of a defending champion in the NRL since 1992, when Penrith’s home opener match drew a crowd 7,755. You could argue that more would have attended the Sharks season opener if it was held in Perth, perhaps even twice as many, with even more TV ratings nationally. This alone should have the NRL seriously considering Sydney club relocation options if it wants to grow the sport.(continued below)
If you compare Sydney to London it is clear the number of NRL sides in Sydney has to be reduced for the good of the sport. London’s population is around nine million with 11 football clubs spread across the Premier League to League One. The average attendances are around 25,000 per match per club at a rate of one club per 800,000 population. Using London as a benchmark for Sydney (which is expected to grow to 6 million over the next 10-20 years), the NRL should reduce from 8.5 Sydney clubs averaging around 14,000 per match to 7.5 clubs to give itself a chance of averaging 20,000 per match. With the majority of the population growth expected to occur in Sydney’s greater west, it will place extreme pressure on the future viability of the smaller fan base Sydney clubs residing in the city’s east.
The aspect the NRL have been most active in increasing Sydney attendances is addressing the issue of ageing stadiums. Since the 2000 Sydney Olympics there has been general lack of transport and stadium infrastructure construction for a city which has added around 700,000 population over the past 17 years, diminishing accessibility and the quality of rugby league venues. Based on recent stadium upgrades in Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane, the NRL can expect attendances to increase by approximately 10-15 per cent at the new Parramatta and ANZ Stadiums (around 50 per cent of Sydney NRL matches). These will both be open by 2022 but they alone will not enough to significantly increase Sydney attendances to the record 2005 levels.
In terms of the general social status of the NRL, it continues to be incapable of appropriately distancing itself from negative stories. The fault of this lies with the NRL, clubs and players in terms of the standards it sets for the game and how it deals with people who do not even meet those standards. It seems like when there is a scandal in the game, the internal rugby league fans can live with it and continue to invest in the game. However for sports fans external to rugby league, it is a red flag that restricts their willingness to invest themselves in the game. In the process, the game is not growing in Sydney beyond the captive internal market of pre-existing rugby league fans. This is emphasised by the fact in 1991 approximately 1.31 million people attended matches in Sydney which had a population of 3.6 million, yet in 2016 with a 1 million increase in population (22% increase) total attendances in Sydney were 1.25 million. Had the NRL been able to organically grow with Sydney’s population, average attendances in Sydney would be approximately 18,000 per match.
Sure there was a Super League War that reduced attendances in Sydney by 250,000 for three years, but that was 20 years ago and many of them had seemingly largely returned 10 years ago. The problem now lies with the above factors, and if the players and clubs want more money from the NRL, they have to ask themselves what the game can afford given the have a strong level of control of these factors and they can easily be substantially improved. In doing so it will stimulate the significant growth the game is always been capable of, while showing them the money at the same time.
