By DAVID HAYWARD
PAUL Kent recently reminded everyone that the NRL has pretty much failed in achieving all of its goals set in its 2013 strategic plan for 2017. Memberships are 100,000 short of its 400,000 target and attendances have gone backwards by 1,000 per game, need we go on?
With this in mind, in lieu of the NRL (or ARLC) producing a plan on how to increase average attendances from 16,000 in 2013 to 20,000 in 2017, contained herein is an unsolicited plan for increasing attendances to 20,000 in 2025.
There are five major factors to increase attendances in sporting leagues, Â these being expansion, stadia, scheduling, prices and product. Each of these have the ability to increase average attendances by 1,000 per match if managed effectively.
In terms of expansion, the NRL has to look no further than Major League Soccer in the United States as to how to increase crowds over a five to 10 year period. In 2007 the NRL and MLS both averaged 16,000 per match in regular season matches. Now the NRL averages closer to 15,000 while the MLS has increased to 21,000.
The key move the MLS made over the past 10 years was expanding from 12 to 20 clubs, most of which include clubs in new markets. In contrast the NRL has the same 16 clubs and there are no clear plans to change over the next five years. If the NRL clubs have their way there may not be any expansion or relocation for another 10 years.
The challenge for the NRL is they do not have the same luxury as the MLS in having more than 50 locations with urban populations of more than one million to choose from. For the MLS this resulted in new clubs like Seattle and Atlanta averaging over 40,000 per match, Orlando 30,000, New York City and Toronto 25,000; Portland, Montreal, Vancouver 20,000; and Philadelphia 15,000. This is a major transformation from 2007 when only the Los Angeles Galaxy averaged more than 20,000 per match. In 2007 the NRL had three teams averaging more than 20,000 per match, being Brisbane, North Queensland and the newly formed Gold Coast Titans, whilst all other clubs averaged between 10,000 (Cronulla) and 17,000 (Wests Tigers). Skip forward to 2016 and only Brisbane average more than 20,000 with all other clubs averaging between 10,000 (Sydney Roosters) and 17,000 (North Queensland).
The untapped expansion opportunities for the NRL lie with Perth, Adelaide, Wellington (NZ), Port Moresby and the under-utilised south east Queensland. Clearly it will take more than expansion for the NRL to average attendances of 20,000 per match but it is a critical piece of the puzzle that will also ensure TV revenue is maximised into the future.
The best case and most practical expansion plan for the NRL is to stage it in a manner that incrementally increases with 18 teams in 2020 and 20 teams in 2025. The breakdown of the first stage 18 team expansion in 2020 should include Sydney – eight teams (currently 8.5), NSW/ACT regional – three teams (currently 2.5), Queensland – four teams (currently three), Melbourne – one team, Perth – one team, New Zealand – one team. This scenario, for example, could introduce a second Brisbane team, which could average 25,000 per match if they are allocated Sunday afternoon matches to capture that massive latent demand in Brisbane, relocate Cronulla to Perth (replacing a 12,000 crowd average with a 15,000 crowd average team), and re-introduce the North Sydney/Central Coast Bears (guaranteed to average at least 15,000 per match). Then in 2025 the NRL should expand to have five teams in Queensland (another 20,000 crowd per match club) and a second team in New Zealand in Wellington (potential crowd average of 15,000).
This expansion will also maximise derbies held in south east Queensland as well as matches between the larger Sydney teams, ensuring attendances would increase by 1,000 per match. No other expansion scenario will enable NRL crowds to increase by as much, and at an average of $25 per ticket, would add around $5 million in revenue per annum from ticket sales alone.
In terms of stadia, recent stadium upgrades in Australia have resulted in attendances increasing by around 15 per cent if there is a renovation and a further 15 per cent  if the stadium is located closer to where the masses can access it. The three committed stadium upgrades for NRL teams over the next decade are for Parramatta, Homebush Bay and Townsville. The other way to increase attendances in a cost effective manner is to weather-proof suburban grounds in Sydney with retractable covers for the hill areas. Rainy conditions can reduce potential crowds by 50 per cent, so this would definitely assist in restricting the losses in gate receipts purely due to inclement weather during the season. By applying the above stadium upgrades to the respective clubs, overall attendances will grow by around 1,000 per match.
In the pursuit of maximising TV revenue over the past few decades, the NRL has sacrificed the control of scheduling to the detriment of match attendances. This has resulted in having around three to six rounds being played without State of Origin players, and Monday night matches which were thankfully removed, only to be replaced by an even worse combination of Thursday night and 6pm Friday matches. These types of poorly scheduled matches account for 72 of the NRL’s 192 matches (37.5%) and reduce attendances by around 15-20% compared to more fan friendly scheduled matches.
This issue is further exacerbated through embarrassingly incompetent, or unprofessional, scheduling of matches between bigger Sydney clubs (Canterbury, Parramatta, Wests Tigers, St George Illawarra and South Sydney) which have the potential to draw more than 20,000 for any given match. A quick scan of the NRL 2017 draw finds that for the first 20 rounds around seven of the 20 big drawing Sydney matches have been scheduled poorly. No wonder there haven’t been any Sydney matches that have organically drawn more than 20,000 people this year. It has only happened four times this year and required special events, such as ANZAC Day or by inviting kids to participate in a half time performance at Southern Cross Group Stadium. The AFL never ties their hands behind their back when scheduling matches between the big Melbourne clubs.
By revitalizing the NRL schedule to ensure State of Origin doesn’t impact on NRL regular season matches (replace with Origin weekends with a Challenge Cup, or internationals or Nine’s circuit), shifting Thursday night games to a live televised Friday night double-header (leveraging New Zealand and Perth time zones) and shifting 6pm Friday night to 6:30pm Sunday night (increasing Fox Sports ratings at the same time) will result in a further increase of 1,000 per match.
While the NRL have made noble attempts to establish affordable ticket prices for fans, they are still priced above market value given their core fanbase are mostly in the lower income brackets of society and Sydney is now one of the most unaffordable and least accessible city on earth. There is no question ticket prices should be reduced given a family of four season ticket membership for the Brisbane Broncos costs $800 ($67 per match). That is a fair chunk of a family’s disposable income when in the low bracket, especially once you add in the old chestnut of inflated food and drink prices at the game. The fact State of Origin matches do not sell out any more in Queensland shows the NRL have unintentionally priced themselves as a rich person’s game without providing a product that appeals to the rich. Rugby league is built on the working class and ticket prices should always reflect that it is the peoples game as this will help ensure eternal prosperity of the sport.
The final piece of the puzzle is the product of rugby league matches, which is largely influenced by the athletes that play and the rules which they have to play within. There is no question the star athletes help fill seats, as evidenced by Sonny Bill Williams’ stint at the Roosters, Sam Burgess at Souths and Jarryd Hayne at the Titans. In order for the NRL to attract the best athletes, they need to properly manage two key things. A salary cap that attracts the best players in rugby league and union, and providing international match experiences that rival rugby union so that players do not feel like their talent is trapped in the claustrophobic NRL environment.
It would be great for the NRL to one day take a leaf out of the AFL play book and use their war chest of TV revenue funds to entice the best rugby union players in New Zealand to play rugby league. This could easily be done through an attractive salary package, as well as offering the challenge of playing in an annual Trans Tasman Test series against a competitive Australian side (rather than the non-threatening Wallabies) and a Four Nations / World Cup tournament in the UK or USA every other year.
Therefore, by executing the above, NRL attendances will reach at least 20,000 per match by 2025 with the added bonuses of annual gate receipts increasing by $25 million, increased TV revenue and viewership domestically and internationally, and increased sponsorship from the corporate sector.
Frustratingly, it is that easy for the game to grow in such a way over the next few years, ensuring a prosperous and secure future in the sports market. However, it is yet so difficult for current influential NRL figures to see the light. The demands and (lack of) vision displayed by the NRL, clubs and players in the current salary cap negotiations indicates that they would prefer the NRL to shrink to current A-League level attendances and TV viewership over the next decade, and let competing codes grow as the MLS has since 2007. If it plays out that way, maybe it is what they deserve in the end. Sadly, even devastatingly, it is not what rugby league and their fans deserve.
