By JOHN DAVIDSON
IT’S BEEN the talk of the rugby league world for the past two weeks. The richest contract in the sport’s history.
The Newcastle Knights’ decision to hand Parramatta five-eighth Dylan Brown a 10-year deal worth $13 million, starting from 2026, has set tongues wagging.
Now, let’s be clear – this is no criticism of Brown. NRL careers are usually short and he can set himself up for life. That will not just set himself up post-footy, but his kids and probably grandkids too. It’s a huge amount of money offered to him, and the vast majority of us would snap it up in a second given half the chance. Brown comes from an impoverished background and this contract is life-changing.
There’s also no criticism of his agents. They are there to get the best deal for their client. And most would say this is an excellent, outstanding, eye-watering deal for Brown.
But the Knights? This is a move that smacks of desperation. A club that struggles to attract top talent paying huge overs for a halfback. A team still seeking an Andrew Johns-like figure two decades after Andrew Johns retired.
Newcastle already has the highest-paid player in the NRL – Kalyn Ponga. Has Ponga fully delivered in his time in the Hunter? That is up for debate. But the Knights have not won a comp since 2001, nor have they made a grand final since Ponga swapped Townsville for Toronto. That is a fact.
You can also argue how good Brown is. He is in his seventh year in the NRL and has played 127 NRL games, scoring 31 tries. In that time the Eels have finished fifth (making it to the semi-finals), third (making it to the semi-finals), sixth (making it to the semi-finals), fourth (making it all the way to the grand final, where they were beaten by Penrith), 10th and 15th.
2023 was a great season for Parra, but since then they have gone downhill. Brad Arthur has been replaced by Jason Ryles, and so far this season they’ve played three and lost three. They’re a huge chance for the wooden spoon in 2025.
Brown is not the key man, the top shot caller, on his team – that is NSW halfback Mitch Moses. Brown is not a natural leader or game organiser, that is Moses, and that has been emphasised in the first few rounds with Moses missing and the Eels struggling in his absence.
As Matty Johns puts it: “Dylan can impact a game heavily, he can have a big impact on a game; but to do that, he needs someone alongside him to control the game. That’s what he needs.
“Dylan is an explosive player, he impacts the game through moments. He’s not a seven, he’s a six. Dylan’s game is the game of a deputy. Which most sixes are; they are deputies. At the moment, he’s a reactive player, he’s a deputy, he’s a pure six.”
Brown is certainly talented and skillful. He is an excellent ball-runner and passer. He is dynamic. The Kiwi has played eight Tests for his country, which is no mean feat.
But he hasn’t been a dominant figure, a game-controller, for New Zealand, not in the way that Shaun Johnson and Jahrome Hughes have been. And if you are spending massive money, the biggest contract ever, you want a really dominant figure. A Nathan Cleary. A DCE. A Cameron Munster. A Joey, Freddy or Wally.
The 24-year-old hasn’t been the dominant playmaker or on-field general for either his country or club yet, which should sound alarm bells at the McDonald Jones Stadium.
“I think he’s had those opportunities to shine and take leadership many times before with Mitch being out,” Nathan Hindmarsh said recently.
“I think he’s got all the talent in the world but just won’t grab the game by the scruff of the neck and really dominate himself as a leader of that side. I think he’s been there long enough now to do that and for us to keep saying this is his chance — he’s had chances, he’s had a lot of chances.”
You look at the history of long-term deals in the NRL – starting with Daly Cherry-Evans at Manly in 2015, when he was given an eight-year contract worth around $10 million, and most have failed to deliver.
Cherry-Evans has worked, in the eyes of many, and he was more of a proven talent at the Sea Eagles when given that deal, compared to Brown, as he won had already won a comp in 2011. DCE has gone on to great heights for both Queensland and Australia. The fallout over DCE’s decision to leave Manly at the end of this year, announced on Monday, has caused shockwaves.
But apart from the blonde-haired halfback, these long contracts in the NRL have been a bust.
Jason Taumalolo? The big forward signed a massive 10-year deal with the Cowboys in 2017, but it has not worked out. Taumalolo has been hobbled by injury, barely plays first-grade now and North Queensland are struggling.
“It just highlights the risks with a 10-year deal,” Darren Lockyer recently said.
“The rarest players out there are game-managing halfbacks. If you find one of them, sign them up for 10, but outside of that it’s not worth the risk. No criticism to Jason, he got a great deal for him and his family, but it just highlights the fact that a middle-forward at some point is gonna find faults with their body.”
The man who offered Taumalolo the deal at the Cowboys? Peter Parr, who now runs the Knights and offered a similar deal to Brown. Taumaolo’s agents? The same who represent Brown, Chris and Gavin Orr.
In 2023 another middle forward, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, inked a 10-year contract at the Gold Coast. The lock had already won an NRL premiership with Melbourne, a World Cup with the Kangaroos and starred in Origin.
It may turn out to be a good bit of business, only time will tell, but Fa’asuamaleaui missed nearly all of last season with an ACL tear. Injuries can cause contract nightmares.
Long contracts are inherently risky. Sonny Bill Williams famously signed a five-year one with the Bulldogs, then ran off to France and rugby union. One of the biggest slaps in the face for Canterbury.
Ben Hunt signed a lucrative five-year contract with St George Illawarra in 2017, but couldn’t lift the Red V out of the doldrums in his time there. Terry Campese signed a five-year deal with the Raiders in 2009, but was plagued by injury and released to go to England at the end of 2014.
The lesson in all of this?
Manage your risk. Rugby league is an intense, physically-demanding sport and durability is crucial. A halfback generally is not going to take as much of a hammering each week as a prop or lock.
Don’t recruit out of desperation or pressure. Make smart, calculated decisions. Plan for the future. Don’t invest a huge amount of your salary cap in just one player.
Choose wisely. Game-winning superstars don’t grow on trees. Don’t prioritise talent and potential over proven class.
Long-term contracts are very popular in American sports. They are common in baseball and the NFL. But they are still fraught with risk. The common belief is there that less job security can end up in less effort.
Sports economist Richard Paulsen, an assistant professor at the U-M School of Kinesiology, says on average players on long-term contracts—those with four or more guaranteed years remaining—underperform by more than $9 million annually.
In MLB they remain controversial. As one analyst puts it: “Building a winning team happens through draft, development, and retaining your best players. Free agency is a supplement to a roster and a tool to help you get over the top.
“If you think you can build a roster off signing big ticket deals, especially as a mid/small market, you might get caught with your pants down. Deals of this size that fail not only leave you cash strapped, but will also cause hesitation with the front office when considering future deals.”
Yes, rugby league is not baseball. And the figures in the States are a lot higher.
However, you’d hope Newcastle would have considered all this. You’d hope they’ve thought long and hard about the impact of this Brown offer, and how it will affect their roster balance going forward. You’d hope they would have contemplated how the contract would have been perceived, not only across the sport, but also by their community – a working-class, down-to-earth town – which has only had success when it has been built around homegrown talent and local juniors.
You’d hope they have learned the lessons of NRL history and avoided the mistakes of the past.
Image: Allan McKenzie/SWpix
