By MICHAEL BYRNES
The Blues finally appear ready to usher in the era they thought had dawned in 2014.
When the Blues halted Queensland’s unprecedented run of success at eight consecutive series victories in 2014, most respected judges heralded the inevitable changing of the guard. The Maroons were an ageing group, the Blues were the opposite — the Queenslanders would surely accept the curtain call and embark upon the rebuilding process inherent in the sunset phase of all sporting dynasties.
Or perhaps they wouldn’t.
Maybe Meninga, Smith, Cronk, Inglis and company had one last series victory in them? Go out on a positive before finally handing the reigns to the next generation! With the 2015 series tied at one game apiece and the decider at Suncorp Stadium, the media crescendo espousing the new Blues era hit fever-pitch again — they would make a statement, crowning themselves repeat champions on Queensland’s home turf. However, as often happens when a volatile script is anointed before opening night, someone forgot to clue the Maroons in. They rattled New South Wales early and didn’t let up through 80 punishing minutes. The final score was 52-6. The Maroons had halted the Blues’ glorious new era at one series victory. And for dessert, they backed it up in 2016 for a grand total of one series loss in 11 years.
Good times (for some). The Maroons might need to keep those memories handy come the end of the 2017 Origin series.
When the two sides were announced for Game one, 2017 on Monday afternoon, the bookies quickly put up a $1-70 vs $2-10 market in favour of the Maroons. Let’s see how long that lasts! The two sides announced today don’t reflect that market in any logical sense. Mark my words — the Blues will start favourites in game one.
The Blues have always had such an overwhelming numerical advantage in terms of player talent that their Origin teams inevitably attract rabid criticism, year after year. They could pick three different players at every position and produce a valid rationale for each option. The Maroons have never had that burden. Yet this year, the usual chorus of dissent has been a murmur. NSW has picked an imperious squad of 20 for game one. David Klemmer, Wade Graham and Jack Bird on the bench are all you need to know about the quality of the Blues’ starting line-up.
The anticipated outrage of giving perennial loser Mitchell Pearce yet another Origin opportunity never eventuated. He has been the standout halfback in the NRL over the opening eleven rounds, and has developed into a class-A threat running the football close to the line. He is a different player (and assumedly a different man) to when he last pulled on the sky blue. The Blues’ halves are no longer their weak link — far from it.
The only other contentious selections for the Blues are in the outside backs, with Brett Morris keeping his place on the wing and Jarryd Hayne being picked in the centres. Morris is as tenacious a rugby league player as you’ll ever see. Quite simply, he won’t let anyone down. He never has in the past. Jarryd Hayne is the very definition of a big game player. Whether his form warrants selection or not, his performance in the drought-breaking victory of 2014 alone warrants his selection. If those two guys are the worst picks in the team, the Blues are in a very good place. (Paul Vaughan is no doubt unlucky — truth is, he would have done a great job, so will Trbojevic / McLean / de Belin, whoever plays).
The Maroons have always been more at risk from injuries than the Blues — their talent pool simply doesn’t run as deep. The losses in the forwards are particularly troubling, with the double-blow of Corey Parker (retirement) and Matt Scott (injury), the two undoubted forward leaders for the last umpteen seasons. Add to that the loss of Inglis and Thurston, and the Maroons suddenly don’t seem to pack anything like their usual punch.
Queenslanders have always comforted themselves with the knowledge that their troops grow an extra limb when they pull on the Maroon jersey. However, with the way the game is played in 2017, there are limits to how far grit and determination can carry you. That was never more obvious than the most recent NRL round (11), where the unfancied Knights and Cowboys both got to 14-0 half-time leads over their much more favoured opposition (Raiders and Sharks respectively), only to find themselves behind at the 60-minute mark. There is simply nowhere to hide in the modern game.(continued below)
A few thoughts about the Queensland selections. Gagai and Chambers would have made an imposing centre combination had the selectors opted for Slater at fullback and Boyd on the wing. Kevin Walters made mention of the fact that Boyd had offered to play wing so that Slater could resume his custodianship, yet how exactly did that happen? Was Darius on the selection panel? Regardless, Boyd will do an outstanding job, as he always has at this level. Justin O’Neill may
have been preferred by selectors in order to counter the physicality of the Blues’ centres (Hayne and Dugan), however I would always put my faith in genuine top-shelf footballers, and you don’t get them any more top-shelf than Billy Slater. My outside backs would have been Slater-Boyd-Chambers-Gagai-Oates, and to be honest, I’m surprised they didn’t come up with that.
Clearly Jonathan Thurston won’t play. I assume he’s been named out of respect and to keep the Blues guessing. Given he won’t be there, Morgan will play five-eighth and Milford will be the x-factor off the bench. That’s not a bad fallback position to having Thurston out.
Cronk has always had ownership of guiding the Maroons around the park, regardless of the assumed influence of Thurston. Nothing showed that more than the impact his absence and eventual return had on the outcome of the 2014 series. He will do that job again, and Queensland will look to get Milford one-on-one against tiring forwards. Obviously, the Blues will employ the same strategy with Jack Bird.
The biggest problem the Maroons will face is maintaining parity with the NSW forwards. Throughout their golden era, Queensland have felt that they could contain the Blues forwards and deploy their significant advantage through their spine to manufacture a winning outcome. In 2017, the prospect of containing the Blues forwards seems to be the most formidable in recent memory. The NRL round 11 results serve as an ominous warning.
The Maroons will need every inch of the advantage that Suncorp Stadium offers them.
Prediction: NSW 20 — QLD 8
